Trouble with Guessing

I'll have to admit, every year before the draft I watch and listen to Mel Kiper Jr.'s analysis of prospects. In the past I have been highly critical of Kiper's analysis and the choices he makes. However, as I now have taken on a similar task, I really have to give credit to Kiper and his colleagues for the work they put into this. In all reality, I wouldn't have even known where to start this blog if it weren't for these analysts. It really is a tough job to sort through ALL this information and try to guess where each person will go and how they will do. Seriously, who would have thought Big Ben Roethlisberger would drop all the way down to Pittsburgh and then lead them to 2 Super Bowls in 5 years. Kiper certainly didn't, and nor did I. All I can say to all those skeptics out there, for I was once one of you...... don't sit at your TV and mock Kiper for his decisions, he's actually been pretty dead on. Once my blog, or your blog recieves the number of hits Kiper's does than we can start dissing on him.

Mel Kiper's ESPN Page: http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/melkiper/index

Photo courtesy of NY Times

Pro Days

Pro Days serve as a second chance for some stars to prove their abilities in a more player-friendly environment. At the combine, players are put through rigorous test, sleep in a hotel, and sometime have difficulty adjusting to the circumstances. By working out at a Pro Day, they get to use their school's facilities and sleep in their own bed. It's a much more relaxed environment that allows these players to showcase their talents effectively. Here is Todd McShay's article on how USC's Pro Day helped drive up the stock of QB Mark Sanchez: http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft09/news/story?id=4034272.

Looks like it may be time to "eat my own words" of my previous post! Haha

Photo Courtesy of ESPN.com

Mark Sanchez, QB

With most of the attention geared towards Matt Stafford and where he will go brings up an interesting topic. And I'm sure nobody is more interested to see where Stafford goes more than Mark Sanchez, QB, USC. If Stafford is picked first, chances are Sanchez will be picked in the next few picks to accomadate those teams QB needs ( ex: Seattle at #4). However if Detroit passes on Stafford, he will obviously go in the next few picks. This means Sanchez will drop a few picks, maybe to 9-15, because teams #1-8, with the exception of Detroit & Seattle, have needs elsewhere. This could be good for Sanchez, because much of his criticism has been he is underdeveloped. By going to a decent organization, he can have time to mold into a prolific pro QB. However, if he goes to Jacksonville, with a defensive minded coach in Jack Del Rio, I think he will suffer a bit. Either way I don't really see Sanchez turning into one of the bests of all time. Take a look at Matt Leinart's situation in Arizona. Leinart had all the tools to take the stage in AZ but has yet to do anything. My guess is Sanchez will be more like Leinart than another USC QB, Carson Palmer. Here is a link to a video regarding Sanchez's Combine performance:
http://www.nfl.com/videos?videoId=09000d5d80f35926

Jason Smith, OT

As you can see on Kirwin's Mock Draft that he thinks Jason Smith will be selected first overall by the Lions. To me this is a safe pick for Detroit, but will the Lions still have this pick or will they go after Cutler via trade? OT's have proven to be a great choice the past two years (Joe Thomas-Cleveland, & Jake Long- Miami). Both tackles were able to come in and anchor these struggling offensive lines. Both of these players made the Pro Bowl as Rookies, and if the Lions take Smith, Detroit fans hope the same will hold true. Detroit would be a good fit and they definitely need to buil from the inside out. My guess is this would be a good fit for both parties.

Mock Draft

Here is NFL.com Senior Analyst Pat Kirwin's Mock Draft for 2009:
http://www.nfl.com/draft/story?id=09000d5d80f330d5&template=without-video-with-comments&confirm=true&campaign=Google_MockDraft

Cutler Trade

As you can see from the Blue and Orange on this page that I am a die hard Broncos fan. It was a great day three years ago when the Broncos were able to draft Cutler. He was supposed to be the savior to the Mile High City's loss of the great #7. After all these trade rumors, reality has finally sank in, Jay Cutler will now be traded, never giving him the opportunity to fill Elway's shoes. Many people were probably asking this blog's question about Cutler, best or bust? The only problem is he had so much to live up to. Almost anyone will be viewed as a bust if they can't live up to the Elway hype. The main question now is what will Denver get in return. My hopes is that one of the teams with a high draft pick will easily relinquish it for Cutler. Trade him to Detroit for the #1 pick, take Stafford, and let's start the process of grooming the next Elway all over again. Sad to see you go Jay, but let's hope we can get that #1 pick and take Stafford. Let's hope Georgia's #7 will come in and finally fill the hole of the infamous #7!

Re-order

After the NFL Combine and numerous Pro-Day workouts, Scout Inc. has reordered it's top 32 Draft Prospects and there are some changes at the top. To see the order go to http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft.

Once again, the top player in this draft, Aaron Curry LB, might not be chosen first and in my opinion thats a good thing. Detroit has taken at least three LB's high in the past (Ted Lehman from OU, Ernie Sims from FSU, and Jordan Dizon from Colorado) and seen little results. However, the verdict is still out on Dizon who enters his second season. All in all Detroit would not be a good fit for Curry. I could really see him stand out in KC at pick 3 where he could team up with former 1st round LB pick Derrick Johnson who could mentor him with what it takes to tranisition from a college star to a good pro LB.

Mel Kiper and Tod McShay

Anyone who has ever followed the Draft knows the Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay are the top analysts for this upcoming draft. During this blog there has been a lot of focus on which of the Top Daft Picks will be the best or bust? However, many of the bests of all time have been drafted in later rounds. Here is a link to a podcast by McShay and Kiper regarding DE Michael Johnson and whether this BIG D-End will be a boom or bust.
http://sports.espn.go.com/stations/player?id=4029919

Draft

This is one of the toughest choices any organization has to face. My grandfather coached for the St. Louis Cardinals in '71-'72 and I considered him to be one the best people in the business at selecting prime talent. During his tenure, he selected Hall of Famer, Dan Dierdorf in the second round. I'd like to think I have the same eye for talent as my grandpa. In this draft the one player I think will be one of the bests of all time is Michael Crabtree. Being from Minnessota, I'm a huge fan of Larry Fitzgerald's. Crabtree reminds me a lot of Fitzy, as both were able to dominate the college ranks as Sophomores. I think the biggest bust will be Matt Stafford. If taken by Detroit first he'll definitely flop. In all reality I dont see any organization in the top 5 picks where he will flourish.

Ratings and Draft Order

Scout Inc., has rated the 32 overall best prospects entering into the 2009 Draft:

Scouts Inc.'s Top 32 (Courtesy of http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft)
Player
Pos.
School
Grade
1. Michael Crabtree
WR
Texas Tech
98
2. Aaron Curry OLB
Wake Forest
98
3. B.J. Raji
DT
Boston Coll.
97
4. Eugene Monroe
OT
Virginia
97
5. Matthew Stafford
QB
Georgia
96
6. Jason Smith
OT
Baylor
96
7. Malcolm Jenkins
CB
Ohio State
96
8. Mark Sanchez
QB
USC
95
9. Andre Smith
OT
Alabama
95
10. Vontae Davis
CB
Illinois
95
11. Aaron Maybin
DE
Penn State
95
12. Jeremy Maclin
WR
Missouri
94
13. Brian Orakpo
DE
Texas
94
14. Brandon Pettigrew
TE
Okla. State
94
15. Rey Maualuga
ILB
USC
94
16. Everette Brown
DE
Florida State
93
17. Brian Cushing
OLB
USC
93
18. Michael Oher
OT
Mississippi
93
19. Knowshon Moreno
RB
Georgia
93
20. Tyson Jackson
DE
LSU
92
21. D.J. Moore
CB
Vanderbilt
92
22. Chris Wells
RB
Ohio State
92
23. Clay Matthews
OLB
USC
92
24. James Laurinaitis
ILB
Ohio State
92
25. Peria Jerry
DT
Mississippi
92
26. Alphonso Smith
CB
Wake Forest
91
27. Larry English
OLB
N. Illinois
91
28. Josh Freeman
QB
Kansas St.
90
29. LeSean McCoy
RB
Pittsburgh
90
30. Percy Harvin
WR
Florida
90
31. Paul Kruger
DE
Utah
90
32. Alex Mack
C
California
90

Even though certain players may be rated highly, it certainly doesn't mean the team with the first few picks will select them. The 2009 NFL Draft order is:
1. Detroit (0-16)2. St. Louis (2-14)3. Kansas City (2-14)4. Seattle (4-12)5. Cleveland (4-12)6. Cincinnati (4-11-1)7. Oakland (5-11)8. Jacksonville (5-11)9. Green Bay (6-10)10. San Francisco (7-9)11. Buffalo (7-9)12. Denver (8-8)13. Washington (8-8)14. New Orleans (8-8)15. Houston (8-8)16. San Diego (8-8)17. New York Jets (9-7)18. Chicago (9-7)19. Tampa Bay (9-6)20. Detroit (from Dallas) (9-7)21. Philadelphia (9-6-1)22. Minnesota (10-6)23. New England (11-5)24. Atlanta (11-5)25. Miami (11-5)26. Baltimore (11-5)27. Indianapolis (12-4)28. Philadelphia (from Carolina) (12-4)29. New York Giants (12-4)30. Tennessee (13-3)31. Arizona (9-7)32. Pittsburgh (12-4).

As you can see, Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech, is rated the #1 overall prospect in the draft, but it would be insane for Detriot to select him with the first pick. As we've seen year after year, Detroit has selected great receiving prospects with their early picks, only to see them fade away as they post disappointing numbers in an extremely flawed system. So it would obviously be in Detroit's best interest to break away from their drafting trend, and rebuild the core of their team. Matt Stafford, QB, Georgia, seems to be a good start, but this player has been hyped up since his freshman year in college. While he did well at Georgia, he never did exactly live up to all the hype that was given to him. By selecting Stafford, could this pan out similarily to Detroit's selection of Joey Harrington? Really, it comes down to how well these players will fit into certain programs, that will determine how well their career in the NFL will go. After the NFL Combine is all said and done, we'll have a better idea of how these players will "fit" with the right teams.

NFL Draft in Past

As the NFL Draft approaches, the top players from college football will be highly analyzed in the months leading up to NFL Draft in New York on April 25 and 26. Teams will pick and prod their way through a hypothetical "meat market", as they attempt to find that perfect fit for their system, a player who one day will emerge as a star and lead their team to the ultimate victory.

In the past, the NFL Draft has seen it's fair share of hyped up players taken with high draft picks, as teams believed these college gridiron stars' skills would transfer over into the professional realm. However, time and time again, we see these high draft picks, these supposed "stars" do nothing but fade away. From the likes of Ryan Leaf, Tony Mandarich, and Brian Bosworth; these players were hyped up to be some of the best players the game has ever seen. Teams raced to draft these illustrious college football stars, only to find out later, that they wouldn't leave the mark on the NFL as the "Best of All-Time", but as the biggest busts of all time.

Now I'm not saying that every player selected with the first few picks have been a bust. For instance, just two years ago, Joe Thomas and Adrian Peterson were both selected in the first 5 picks of the draft, and within two seasons, both have emerged as some of the best in the NFL at their respected positions.

Therefore, with so much speculation on this year's top draft prospects, we ask the question: Which of the 2009 NFL Draft Prospects will go down as some of the best of all-time, or the biggest busts of all-time?